BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Northern House Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.27–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.27–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.322.0
20271.10.312.0
20281.10.301.9
20291.10.281.9
20301.10.271.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hazel CampOREGON132022
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA122019
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA111996
YrekaCALIFORNIA102019
McchordWASHINGTON102015
DerbyOREGON91993
TimberOREGON72017
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON72025
HullvilleCALIFORNIA62018
Secret ValOREGON62025
RuchOREGON62023
MccloudCALIFORNIA52013
CougarWASHINGTON52023
RainierWASHINGTON52025
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA42018
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA42017
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA42005
WedderburnOREGON42019
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA31970
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA32025
AlderpointCALIFORNIA31994
ElktonOREGON32017
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON32023
Trask SummitOREGON32023
CoquilleOREGON31998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.