BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Northern House Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 267% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+267%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 267% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.07
20260.040.000.07
20270.040.000.07
20280.040.000.07
20290.040.000.07

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HumboldtTENNESSEE42022
CornlandVIRGINIA42014
ShilohKENTUCKY32023
Big SandyTENNESSEE32024
StocktonGEORGIA21984
CuthbertGEORGIA22003
LyonsGEORGIA21976
WeirMISSISSIPPI22019
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA22012
Broad CreekNORTH-CAROLINA22013
New HollandSOUTH-CAROLINA21981
MansfieldTENNESSEE22024
St FlorianALABAMA12010
DeepstepGEORGIA12014
WadleyGEORGIA11983
LakeviewGEORGIA12022
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA11982
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA12006
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA12022
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA12018
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA11994
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA12019
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA11993
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA12021
CokesburyNORTH-CAROLINA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.