BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 757% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+757%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 757% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.93.7
20262.91.93.8
20272.92.03.8
20282.92.03.9
20293.02.03.9

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VevayINDIANA252024
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY252023
Buena VistaKENTUCKY192017
McbrayerKENTUCKY182024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY182024
SpencerINDIANA172024
AvocaARKANSAS152024
EastviewKENTUCKY132024
GlencoeKENTUCKY132022
Doe RunMISSOURI132024
Indian SpgsINDIANA122024
AzaliaINDIANA112024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY102024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY92021
PlumKENTUCKY82024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY82019
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI82024
DelwoodILLINOIS72024
CyprssINDIANA72024
GoshenKENTUCKY71999
BirdsILLINOIS62024
BremenILLINOIS62024
BrazilINDIANA62024
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY62023
SyracuseMISSOURI62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.