BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 694% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+694%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 694% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.93.7
20272.81.93.8
20282.91.93.8
20292.92.03.9
20303.02.03.9

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buena VistaKENTUCKY192017
McbrayerKENTUCKY182025
SpencerINDIANA172024
AvocaARKANSAS152024
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY152025
VevayINDIANA132025
GlencoeKENTUCKY132022
PlumKENTUCKY132025
PleasurevillKENTUCKY122025
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY92025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY92021
Indian SpgsINDIANA82025
EastviewKENTUCKY82025
Bays ForkKENTUCKY82019
Doe RunMISSOURI82025
GoshenKENTUCKY71999
BirdsILLINOIS62024
YorkILLINOIS62025
PorterKENTUCKY62025
East UnionKENTUCKY62025
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY62023
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY62025
SyracuseMISSOURI62024
CraneMISSOURI62022
NewberryINDIANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.