BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Northern House Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
274Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025131115
2026131115
2027131115
2028131115
2029131115

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MurdockNEBRASKA852024
RaymondWISCONSIN502024
UnionILLINOIS412017
SheffieldILLINOIS392024
Lake SummersetILLINOIS382022
Red RockIOWA362024
River FallsWISCONSIN362024
AldenILLINOIS342023
KalidaOHIO332019
WallaceINDIANA322024
BartonvilleILLINOIS312024
LafayetteIOWA312024
College Spgs 2IOWA302023
Ash CreekMINNESOTA302024
AustinMINNESOTA302023
Marion 2OHIO302024
AshleyOHIO302018
TrentonMISSOURI292024
ThorntownINDIANA282024
BudaILLINOIS262023
Terre HauteILLINOIS262024
MaplewoodINDIANA262021
BotkinsOHIO262019
HebronINDIANA252022
WatsonMISSOURI252024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.