BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+132%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 9.0–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 9.0–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025148.718
2026148.818
2027148.919
2028149.019
2029149.019

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA582024
MidwayNEBRASKA572023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA432024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA422024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA412024
TracyMINNESOTA362024
BeltramiMINNESOTA322024
TildenNEBRASKA292024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA292024
ChandlerMINNESOTA272023
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA262024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA262024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA262012
AppletonMINNESOTA252024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA252024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA242023
Redwood FallMINNESOTA232024
PoncaNEBRASKA232024
PantherIOWA222024
TitonkaIOWA222024
WinsideNEBRASKA222003
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA222023
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA212024
MccallsburgIOWA202024
OkleeMINNESOTA202021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.