BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+154%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.3–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.3–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026149.019
2027149.019
2028149.119
2029149.219
2030149.319

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA622025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA562025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA552025
SpartaNEBRASKA472025
MidwayNEBRASKA432025
ChandlerMINNESOTA372025
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA372025
PoncaNEBRASKA332025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA332025
FairmontMINNESOTA312025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA312025
TracyMINNESOTA302025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA302025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA302025
WorthingtonMINNESOTA292025
BeltramiMINNESOTA262025
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA262012
PantherIOWA252025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA252025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA242025
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA242023
AppletonMINNESOTA232025
TildenNEBRASKA232025
WinsideNEBRASKA222003
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA222023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.