BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+110%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
186Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Northern Rockies: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.45.5
20274.02.45.5
20284.02.45.5
20294.02.55.6
20304.12.55.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clyde ParkMONTANA542025
CascadeIDAHO361984
Green RiverWYOMING311984
CabartonIDAHO262024
Silver CreekOREGON242025
Church HillMONTANA182025
GoldenIDAHO152016
St MaryMONTANA152008
RiversideWYOMING152025
MeeteetseWYOMING152025
ChestnutMONTANA142025
Heart ButteMONTANA142025
Pagil GulchMONTANA142025
Fort LoganMONTANA142025
Mount VernonOREGON142024
Freeman CreekMONTANA132016
Muddy CreekMONTANA132015
CodyWYOMING132025
SaveryWYOMING131995
WilsonWYOMING132025
FeathervilleIDAHO122025
LaurelMONTANA122025
MooseWYOMING122025
AugustaMONTANA112025
E. Bear LakeUTAH112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.