BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+116%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
185Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Northern Rockies: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.45.5
20264.02.45.5
20274.02.45.6
20284.02.55.6
20294.12.55.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CascadeIDAHO361984
Clyde ParkMONTANA322024
Green RiverWYOMING311984
FeathervilleIDAHO192024
Church HillMONTANA192024
Silver CreekOREGON192024
Summit PrOREGON192024
LaurelMONTANA182022
St. Mary 2MONTANA182024
MeeteetseWYOMING172024
TroyOREGON162024
GoldenIDAHO152016
CabartonIDAHO152023
St MaryMONTANA152008
WilsonWYOMING152024
AugustaMONTANA142024
Mount VernonOREGON142024
Freeman CreekMONTANA132016
Muddy CreekMONTANA132015
Fort LoganMONTANA132024
SaveryWYOMING131995
GlenMONTANA122024
Savery 2WYOMING122024
RandolphUTAH112024
Seedskadee 2WYOMING112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.