BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.90.8319
20279.60.4719
20289.20.1218
20298.90.0018
20308.50.0018

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goliad PrairieTEXAS982016
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS742025
San PedroTEXAS712025
MamouLOUISIANA681982
Rock IslandTEXAS602025
Oyster LakeTEXAS402025
McfaddinTEXAS372016
VanderbiltTEXAS291976
Loyola BeachTEXAS252009
KatyTEXAS242025
ChinquapinTEXAS192025
Bayside 2TEXAS182004
IndianolaTEXAS162024
StowellTEXAS162025
Hinkles FerTEXAS122025
MauriceLOUISIANA82024
WinnieTEXAS82025
Lag AtascosaTEXAS72025
Bayside 3TEXAS72025
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS52025
CreoleLOUISIANA31987
Vinton 2LOUISIANA32022
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22017
Forked IslandLOUISIANA22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.