BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.90.8219
20269.50.4519
20279.10.0918
20288.80.0018
20298.40.0017

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goliad PrairieTEXAS982016
MamouLOUISIANA681982
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS442024
Rock IslandTEXAS372024
McfaddinTEXAS372016
San PedroTEXAS332023
VanderbiltTEXAS291976
ChinquapinTEXAS292024
Loyola BeachTEXAS252009
KatyTEXAS182024
Bayside 2TEXAS182004
IndianolaTEXAS162024
Oyster LakeTEXAS162024
Hinkles FerTEXAS132024
MauriceLOUISIANA82024
StowellTEXAS72023
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS72023
CreoleLOUISIANA31987
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA32024
Vinton 2LOUISIANA32022
WinnieTEXAS32024
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
Bayside 3TEXAS32024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22017
Forked IslandLOUISIANA22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.