BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+240%Since 1975
13Routes In Region
48Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Bobwhite has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029
0.82Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.395% range
±65.3%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.830.002.4
20260.830.002.4
20270.820.002.4
20280.820.002.4
20290.820.002.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Chihuahuan Desert.
Devils R CynTEXAS472024
ComstockTEXAS462023
LongfellowTEXAS92024
PumpvilleTEXAS82024
GirvinTEXAS42017
LangtryTEXAS42000
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22016
OzonaTEXAS22022
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22018
Coyanda DrawTEXAS22024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12013
Casa PiedraTEXAS12009
ToyahvaleTEXAS12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.