BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.008.5
20260.000.008.5
20270.000.008.5
20280.000.008.5
20290.000.008.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrowardFLORIDA521973
WebbFLORIDA442024
SalvistaFLORIDA341979
AlturasFLORIDA331986
Babcock RnchFLORIDA301990
Myakka HeadFLORIDA252011
ChassahowitzFLORIDA232024
GardnerFLORIDA211999
PalmdaleFLORIDA192023
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA182024
ClewistonFLORIDA182023
Ridge HarborFLORIDA162024
KenansvilleFLORIDA152024
CitrusFLORIDA152024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA142024
Sandy 2FLORIDA142024
MabelFLORIDA122011
Green SwampFLORIDA122024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA112024
OcalaFLORIDA102024
RomeoFLORIDA92024
KissimmeeFLORIDA92024
Mabel 2FLORIDA72019
CorbettFLORIDA72024
IndiantownFLORIDA62017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.