BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
339Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.008.6
20260.000.008.6
20270.000.008.6
20280.000.008.6
20290.000.008.6

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FoleyALABAMA721984
WalthallMISSISSIPPI701987
GrandyNORTH-CAROLINA521975
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA521979
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI511987
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA491982
Boykin Ml PdSOUTH-CAROLINA471968
BostonGEORGIA462024
NewtonGEORGIA402024
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI381982
WaycrossGEORGIA361984
WorkmoreGEORGIA352019
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA331981
BlountstownFLORIDA322024
FitzgeraldGEORGIA322024
BethanyGEORGIA322024
BackbayVIRGINIA321974
BranchvilleVIRGINIA312024
Broad BranchFLORIDA272024
DouglasGEORGIA271984
TelogiaFLORIDA261985
NeedmoreGEORGIA261983
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA251991
WaverlyVIRGINIA251987
FontainbleauMISSISSIPPI241978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.