BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4214.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4214.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4214.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.0
20260.000.003.0
20270.000.003.0
20280.000.003.0
20290.000.003.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN122007
S LyonsMICHIGAN71992
KnoxINDIANA62024
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN62000
North BranchMICHIGAN61999
NapoleonOHIO62002
HamburgMICHIGAN52001
MerideanWISCONSIN52012
ViroquaWISCONSIN42007
Fall RiverWISCONSIN42024
PackertownINDIANA32004
Packertown 2INDIANA32023
OlaMICHIGAN31995
Bell OakMICHIGAN32008
DeckervilleMICHIGAN32007
RichmondMICHIGAN32003
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN32000
EsdaileWISCONSIN31969
GuilfordILLINOIS22008
Columbia CtyINDIANA22014
LakevilleINDIANA22024
LagrangeINDIANA22024
No BradleyMICHIGAN21978
PettysvilleMICHIGAN21979
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN21987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.