BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0016
20260.000.0016
20270.000.0016
20280.000.0016
20290.000.0016

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E GeorgetownTEXAS541979
BriteTEXAS412024
LocoOKLAHOMA391985
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA391977
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA332009
ThorntonTEXAS271984
Three RiversTEXAS252024
Mount ZionTEXAS232024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA222024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA192019
DuranTEXAS191999
HobsonTEXAS182024
Wolfe CityTEXAS171987
OlneyTEXAS162024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA152018
CampbelltonTEXAS142024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS142024
CreedmoreTEXAS122014
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA112024
AlbanyTEXAS112024
HenriettaTEXAS112022
TatumsOKLAHOMA82024
DuncanOKLAHOMA82024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA62024
SchroederTEXAS61997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.