BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0016
20270.000.0016
20280.000.0016
20290.000.0016
20300.000.0016

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E GeorgetownTEXAS541979
LocoOKLAHOMA391985
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA391977
BriteTEXAS382025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS362025
Mount ZionTEXAS342025
ThorntonTEXAS271984
Three RiversTEXAS272025
HobsonTEXAS232025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA202025
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA202025
SkiatookOKLAHOMA192019
DuranTEXAS191999
Wolfe CityTEXAS171987
OlneyTEXAS162024
MegargelTEXAS152025
CampbelltonTEXAS142024
AlbanyTEXAS132025
CreedmoreTEXAS122014
HenriettaTEXAS112022
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA102025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA92025
SchroederTEXAS61997
Lone OakTEXAS62022
DuncanOKLAHOMA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.