BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0020
20260.000.0020
20270.000.0020
20280.000.0020
20290.000.0020

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownTEXAS531985
FitzhughTEXAS401983
San SabaTEXAS232024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS132024
Valley SpgsTEXAS102024
KempnerTEXAS62024
AdamsvilleTEXAS42024
Indian MtnTEXAS42024
HarperTEXAS32024
LeakeyTEXAS32024
Allen CreekTEXAS32024
Dripping SpgTEXAS22024
LeanderTEXAS22006
MontellTEXAS22024
RockspringTEXAS22024
BoerneTEXAS12018
UtopiaTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS12017
ManorTEXAS12021
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.