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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±160.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0019
20270.000.0019
20280.000.0019
20290.000.0019
20300.000.0019

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownTEXAS531985
FitzhughTEXAS401983
San SabaTEXAS382025
KempnerTEXAS122025
AdamsvilleTEXAS122025
Valley SpgsTEXAS82025
HarperTEXAS82025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS62025
UtopiaTEXAS52025
Indian MtnTEXAS32025
Dripping SpgTEXAS22024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS22025
LeanderTEXAS22006
Manor 2TEXAS22025
LeakeyTEXAS22025
MontellTEXAS22025
Allen CreekTEXAS22025
BoerneTEXAS12018
PidcokeTEXAS12017
ManorTEXAS12021
RockspringTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.