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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 13–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 13–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026281441
2027281441
2028271441
2029271441
2030271341

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA1591994
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA1371994
GrimesOKLAHOMA1322025
KanopolisKANSAS1312025
CovertKANSAS932025
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA902025
WakitaOKLAHOMA892016
WoodwardOKLAHOMA882025
LookoutOKLAHOMA802025
HackberryTEXAS802024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA762025
WeinertTEXAS751994
GirardTEXAS742025
CookietownOKLAHOMA732006
BookerTEXAS722025
ChesterOKLAHOMA711988
RosstonOKLAHOMA712018
PhrosoOKLAHOMA712025
ClarendonTEXAS702024
HollisOKLAHOMA682025
ChildressTEXAS682025
WilliamsTEXAS662025
ErickOKLAHOMA652024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA652025
LakeviewTEXAS622025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.