BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 13–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 13–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025271441
2026271341
2027271341
2028271341
2029271341

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA1591994
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA1371994
CovertKANSAS1262024
KanopolisKANSAS1252024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA902024
WakitaOKLAHOMA892016
GrimesOKLAHOMA862024
HackberryTEXAS802024
PhrosoOKLAHOMA752024
WeinertTEXAS751994
CookietownOKLAHOMA732006
ChesterOKLAHOMA711988
RosstonOKLAHOMA712018
ClarendonTEXAS702024
ErickOKLAHOMA652024
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA611994
Ash ValleyKANSAS562019
LoganKANSAS532022
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA522022
CoopertonOKLAHOMA492024
LakeviewTEXAS482024
Jewell 2KANSAS472024
HendleyNEBRASKA472024
JetOKLAHOMA472024
HanoverKANSAS462023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.