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Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.001.0
20260.230.001.0
20270.220.001.0
20280.210.001.0
20290.200.000.99

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TildenNEBRASKA212024
SpartaNEBRASKA112021
ClareIOWA71990
GarnerIOWA31974
WinsideNEBRASKA32003
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32024
Winside 2NEBRASKA32022
MadisonNEBRASKA32019
ScrantonIOWA22024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA21991
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA21996
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA22015
PantherIOWA12024
WashingtonIOWA12014
ZearingIOWA11994
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA12006
MidwayNEBRASKA12023
PoncaNEBRASKA12024
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA12024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA12008
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.