BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Great Basin has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
260Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Great Basin is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Great Basin is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.018
2026114.818
2027114.617
2028114.417
2029114.217

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UmatillaOREGON1242023
MesaWASHINGTON782008
PromontoryUTAH722024
OthelloWASHINGTON631991
DuboisIDAHO612024
Charleston ReservoirNEVADA522024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA512024
Timpie SpgUTAH482003
DeschutesOREGON462024
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON432024
Glenns FerryIDAHO411986
Piute MdwsNEVADA412024
Cedar HillIDAHO402024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA392019
CortezNEVADA392024
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON392022
PocatelloIDAHO372019
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON372024
JoelIDAHO352024
NubieberCALIFORNIA342018
VyaNEVADA341974
Calico SprNEVADA341974
Alvord LakeOREGON342024
Fish LakeOREGON342024
Trout CreekOREGON342021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.