BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Great Basin has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
260Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Great Basin is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Great Basin is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.018
2027114.818
2028114.617
2029114.417
2030114.217

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MesaWASHINGTON782008
Trout CreekOREGON722025
Mud LakeIDAHO692025
OthelloWASHINGTON631991
AdrianOREGON562025
DuboisIDAHO542025
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON542025
Charleston ReservoirNEVADA522024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA512024
DeschutesOREGON512025
RirieIDAHO502025
FallonNEVADA502025
Timpie SpgUTAH482003
Glenns FerryIDAHO411986
Alvord LakeOREGON412025
Cedar HillIDAHO402024
IngallsCALIFORNIA392025
Iron GateCALIFORNIA392019
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON392022
UmatillaOREGON382025
PocatelloIDAHO372019
PendletonOREGON372025
JoelIDAHO352024
Catlow RimOREGON352025
NubieberCALIFORNIA342018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.