BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.004.6
20262.10.004.5
20272.10.004.5
20282.00.004.4
20292.00.004.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AdairOREGON302024
YrekaCALIFORNIA192019
Port AngelesWASHINGTON172024
GazelleCALIFORNIA152021
DerbyOREGON141993
Sams ValleyOREGON132024
UmpquaOREGON122024
Pe EllWASHINGTON122023
McchordWASHINGTON112014
HoneydewCALIFORNIA102017
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA102017
ScappooseOREGON102023
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA92024
CamasWASHINGTON92018
CanbyOREGON82024
South ElmaWASHINGTON82024
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA72021
Days CreekOREGON72024
Emigrant LkOREGON72001
RuchOREGON72023
KamilcheWASHINGTON72024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON72024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA62019
MccloudCALIFORNIA62021
LoraneOREGON62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.