BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 13–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 13–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026331353
2027331353
2028331353
2029331353
2030331353

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoswellNEW-MEXICO1392025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS952025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO852025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO812000
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO752025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO711977
DemingNEW-MEXICO651975
Devils R CynTEXAS652025
PumpvilleTEXAS652025
Van HornTEXAS572025
Delaware CrkTEXAS562015
Ozona 2TEXAS452025
MarfaTEXAS412025
PresidioTEXAS402025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO392019
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO392025
ComstockTEXAS382025
GirvinTEXAS382025
ValentineTEXAS371987
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO362025
CanutilloTEXAS352025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO342025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO332021
GageNEW-MEXICO322025
SlaughterTEXAS302021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.