BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 12–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 12–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025321253
2026321253
2027321253
2028321253
2029321253

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoswellNEW-MEXICO1832023
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO872024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO842024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO812000
ComstockTEXAS792023
PresidioTEXAS792023
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO711977
DemingNEW-MEXICO651975
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO632024
CanutilloTEXAS612024
Black GapTEXAS582023
Van HornTEXAS582024
Delaware CrkTEXAS562015
Ft. DavisTEXAS542023
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO502023
PumpvilleTEXAS492024
GageNEW-MEXICO472024
Bear MtnTEXAS442024
MarathonTEXAS422023
Devils R CynTEXAS402024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO392019
JornadaNEW-MEXICO372024
ValentineTEXAS371987
RodeoNEW-MEXICO352024
MarfaTEXAS342024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.