BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
403Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has risen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 21–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 21–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026242028
2027242028
2028242028
2029252029
2030252129

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmegaOHIO1492024
DresdenOHIO942025
WilliamsportMARYLAND862025
BirminghamALABAMA841995
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA772025
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA732025
Baxter RidgeOHIO712025
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY671997
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA631999
SummittALABAMA611981
Mt OliveALABAMA602025
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA581981
Greasy RidgeOHIO551991
Corryton RdTENNESSEE552019
ClimerTENNESSEE542004
TalladegaALABAMA532025
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA532025
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA532001
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY511995
StonecreekOHIO512025
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA512009
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA502025
LakeviewALABAMA482025
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY462024
DrydenNEW-YORK462025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.