BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
402Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 21–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 21–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025242028
2026242128
2027252128
2028252129
2029252129

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmegaOHIO1492024
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA882024
BirminghamALABAMA841995
WilliamsportMARYLAND792024
DresdenOHIO772024
TalladegaALABAMA682024
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY671997
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA631999
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA632024
SummittALABAMA611981
MeridaleNEW-YORK602024
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA581981
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA572024
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA552021
Greasy RidgeOHIO551991
Corryton RdTENNESSEE552019
ClimerTENNESSEE542004
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA532001
Sugar GroveWEST-VIRGINIA532024
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA522024
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY511995
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA512009
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA512024
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA492024
WallerPENNSYLVANIA482024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.