BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 32–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 32–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New HamptonMISSOURI1622025
College SpgsIOWA1382004
BrookvilleINDIANA1312025
NewportOHIO1141994
MurdockNEBRASKA1122025
Marion 2OHIO1092025
GreenviewILLINOIS1062025
HarveysburgOHIO1051996
EmdenMISSOURI1012024
Witts StationINDIANA972025
LincolnvilleKANSAS972024
TecumsehOHIO961982
DunlapOHIO891988
DecaturINDIANA832025
WilmingtonOHIO831996
JamestownINDIANA782025
MadisonMISSOURI752024
CubaOHIO742024
PlainfieldINDIANA731999
MarshallILLINOIS722025
RaymondWISCONSIN722025
Mt HamillIOWA712025
LondonOHIO712012
MilfordILLINOIS702025
GalesburgKANSAS692025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.