BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 32–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 32–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025423251
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Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
College SpgsIOWA1382004
NewportOHIO1141994
HarveysburgOHIO1051996
EmdenMISSOURI1012024
LincolnvilleKANSAS972024
TecumsehOHIO961982
DunlapOHIO891988
KentonOHIO842024
WilmingtonOHIO831996
HarristownILLINOIS822024
MadisonMISSOURI752024
BelleviewILLINOIS742024
Mt HamillIOWA742024
College Spgs 2IOWA742023
CubaOHIO742024
PlainfieldINDIANA731999
GreenviewILLINOIS712024
LondonOHIO712012
KeithsburgILLINOIS692022
RaymondWISCONSIN662024
JanesvilleILLINOIS652024
KirksvilleMISSOURI652024
KalidaOHIO652019
MaplewoodINDIANA642021
DarrtownOHIO632021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.