BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 26–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 26–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026422658
2027422658
2028422658
2029422657
2030412657

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS2252025
HobsonTEXAS1262025
E GeorgetownTEXAS1181979
LockhartTEXAS1042025
BriteTEXAS1032025
WalburgTEXAS992025
SchroederTEXAS981997
MuldoonTEXAS942025
Oak GroveTEXAS841999
Whit Mtn.TEXAS752019
AlbanyTEXAS712025
WeatherfordTEXAS702025
FanninTEXAS672025
CreedmoreTEXAS672014
Arenosa CrkTEXAS662025
OlneyTEXAS652024
PaigeTEXAS652025
GauseTEXAS611997
DuranTEXAS601999
CarlosTEXAS592025
Mount ZionTEXAS572025
SeldenTEXAS522025
CottonwoodTEXAS522025
HearneTEXAS522025
OsageTEXAS472025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.