BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 19–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025382156
2026382056
2027382055
2028371955
2029371955

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1831984
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA1382024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA1161983
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA1142024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA1082024
WestbyMONTANA1052024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA962023
TildenNEBRASKA922024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA922024
OswegoMONTANA912024
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA882023
MidwayNEBRASKA862023
GlasgowMONTANA842024
WinsideNEBRASKA832003
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA832024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA822023
Wolf PointMONTANA812024
SpartaNEBRASKA812021
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA782024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA712024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA702024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA662024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA652014
RedstoneMONTANA642024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA632023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.