BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 20–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 20–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026392157
2027382156
2028382056
2029382056
2030372055

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1831984
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA1362025
MidwayNEBRASKA1332025
OswegoMONTANA1202025
WestbyMONTANA1172025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA1172025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA1161983
RedstoneMONTANA1132025
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA1082025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA1062025
GlasgowMONTANA1052025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA932025
TildenNEBRASKA902025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA892025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA882023
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA862025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA842025
WinsideNEBRASKA832003
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA822023
Wolf PointMONTANA812024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA802025
AppletonMINNESOTA792025
LambertMONTANA742025
SpartaNEBRASKA742025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA692025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.