BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnificent Frigatebird Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Magnificent Frigatebird in Florida has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Magnificent Frigatebird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnificent Frigatebird has collapsed in Florida: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Magnificent Frigatebird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Magnificent Frigatebird in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnificent Frigatebird in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.070.000.29
20230.060.000.29
20240.060.000.29
20250.060.000.28
20260.060.000.28

Magnificent Frigatebird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Magnificent Frigatebird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plantation K2020041966
Cross City320131989
Sugarloaf Key320041999
Port St Joe 2220192019
Key Largo219911987
Citrus Park220082008
Card Sound220211998
Sugarloaf Key 2220212005
Punta Gorda120122000
Sebastian119921989
Vero Beach120081993

Magnificent Frigatebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamalouisianatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.