BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnificent Frigatebird

FregatidaeSeabirdsFregata magnificens

Magnificent Frigatebird has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Magnificent Frigatebird

The Magnificent Frigatebird (Fregata magnificens) is a North American member of the Frigatebirds (Fregatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the seabirds.

Size
about 39.5 in long (100 cm) — a very large seabird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open ocean and coastlines, coming ashore mainly to nest in colonies.
Diet
Fish, squid and other marine animals caught at or below the surface.
Range
Recorded on 17 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 4 states, most concentrated in the Peninsular Florida.
Family
Fregatidae · Seabirds

Notable Magnificent Frigatebird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Magnificent Frigatebird. See the full index history below.

Magnificent Frigatebird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Magnificent Frigatebird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±225.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnificent Frigatebird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.02
20230.000.000.02
20240.000.000.02
20250.000.000.02
20260.000.000.02

Where the Magnificent Frigatebird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Magnificent Frigatebird, sized by most recent count.

Magnificent Frigatebird Population Trend by State

Magnificent Frigatebird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a2
Florida-75%196811
Louisianainsufficient datan/a2
Texasinsufficient datan/a2

Magnificent Frigatebird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Magnificent Frigatebird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Peninsular Florida-78%19689

Magnificent Frigatebird Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 80% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.