BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnificent Frigatebird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Magnificent Frigatebird in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968
9Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Magnificent Frigatebird has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Magnificent Frigatebird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2026 — from 0.09 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2026
0.07Projected 2026 index
0.00–0.4595% range
±72.9%Backtest error
19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20220.090.000.47
20230.080.000.46
20240.080.000.46
20250.070.000.45
20260.070.000.45

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Magnificent Frigatebird in Peninsular Florida.
Plantation KFLORIDA202004
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA32004
Key LargoFLORIDA21991
Citrus ParkFLORIDA22008
Card SoundFLORIDA22021
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA22021
SebastianFLORIDA11992
Punta GordaFLORIDA12012
Vero BeachFLORIDA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.