BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnificent Frigatebird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Magnificent Frigatebird in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnificent Frigatebird has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Magnificent Frigatebird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Magnificent Frigatebird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2026 — from 0.09 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnificent Frigatebird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2026 — from 0.09 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.090.000.47
20230.080.000.46
20240.080.000.46
20250.070.000.45
20260.070.000.45

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Magnificent Frigatebird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plantation KFLORIDA202004
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA32004
Key LargoFLORIDA21991
Citrus ParkFLORIDA22008
Card SoundFLORIDA22021
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA22021
SebastianFLORIDA11992
Punta GordaFLORIDA12012
Vero BeachFLORIDA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.