BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+300%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.05–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.05–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.050.12
20260.080.050.12
20270.090.050.12
20280.090.050.12
20290.090.050.12

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS42024
ColumbiaILLINOIS22017
PaysonILLINOIS22018
WallaceINDIANA22024
Witts StationINDIANA22024
OlatheKANSAS22021
WrefordKANSAS22021
SenecaKANSAS22022
ReeceKANSAS22022
Trading PostKANSAS22019
GeraldMISSOURI22023
House SpringsMISSOURI22024
MilfordMISSOURI22021
UnionMISSOURI21999
EnonOHIO22022
BartonvilleILLINOIS12022
MelroseILLINOIS11998
AthensvilleILLINOIS11984
ConcordILLINOIS12014
ClarksdaleILLINOIS11971
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS12005
Camp PointILLINOIS12006
EldredILLINOIS12009
ClaytonILLINOIS12016
Grape CreekILLINOIS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.