BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.003.4
20270.000.003.4
20280.000.003.4
20290.000.003.4
20300.000.003.4

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlturasFLORIDA321986
BrowardFLORIDA101973
Punta GordaFLORIDA102013
Ridge HarborFLORIDA92025
Dale MabryFLORIDA81988
Myakka HeadFLORIDA82011
KendallFLORIDA81991
WebbFLORIDA82025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA62025
GardnerFLORIDA61999
Shawano 2FLORIDA52007
ChildsFLORIDA42022
Pleasant GrFLORIDA42007
SandyFLORIDA42015
San AntonioFLORIDA32018
KissimmeeFLORIDA32022
PalmdaleFLORIDA32021
FlamingoFLORIDA32001
Mt. OliveFLORIDA32025
Merritt IslFLORIDA32011
RomeoFLORIDA22025
St AugustineFLORIDA22018
MabelFLORIDA22011
Sunniland GrFLORIDA22021
KenansvilleFLORIDA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.