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Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 66% by 2028 — from 0.16 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 66% by 2028 — from 0.16 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.24
20250.060.000.23
20260.060.000.23
20270.060.000.23
20280.050.000.23

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA152023
BelknapILLINOIS92011
BremenILLINOIS62017
PulaskiILLINOIS42011
JoyKENTUCKY42009
CantonKENTUCKY32023
ZionARKANSAS21969
CentertonARKANSAS22011
SanduskyILLINOIS22011
PinevilleMISSOURI22003
ReedsMISSOURI22008
HillsboroALABAMA11975
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA12007
SwaimALABAMA11991
FultonARKANSAS11996
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS11994
ApexKENTUCKY12007
HaydenMISSOURI11990
WhitewaterMISSOURI12007
RichlandMISSOURI12016
BaronOKLAHOMA12012
ColcordOKLAHOMA12018
CollinwoodTENNESSEE11983
GlenTENNESSEE12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.