BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-79%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

LeConte's Sparrow has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

LeConte's Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4004.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4004.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4004.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.001.6
20260.670.001.6
20270.670.001.6
20280.680.001.6
20290.680.001.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GryglaMINNESOTA72017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
ErieMINNESOTA62017
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA52018
WylieMINNESOTA42011
BadgerMINNESOTA42018
Big StoneMINNESOTA32008
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA32009
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32013
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA31974
RedstoneMONTANA22014
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA22010
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA22010
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA22012
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA22010
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA21995
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA22010
AppletonMINNESOTA11996
GlyndonMINNESOTA12010
TenneyMINNESOTA12011
OkleeMINNESOTA12021
BeltramiMINNESOTA12023
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA12007
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.