BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-79%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

LeConte's Sparrow has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4004.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4004.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4004.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.001.6
20260.670.001.6
20270.670.001.6
20280.680.001.6
20290.680.001.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GryglaMINNESOTA72017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
ErieMINNESOTA62017
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA52018
WylieMINNESOTA42011
BadgerMINNESOTA42018
Big StoneMINNESOTA32008
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA32009
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32013
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA31974
RedstoneMONTANA22014
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA22010
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA22010
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA22012
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA22010
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA21995
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA22010
AppletonMINNESOTA11996
GlyndonMINNESOTA12010
TenneyMINNESOTA12011
OkleeMINNESOTA12021
BeltramiMINNESOTA12023
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA12007
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.