BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Tern In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Least Tern in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968
39Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Least Tern has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1470.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.595% range
±1470.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.002.5
20260.000.002.5
20270.000.002.5
20280.000.002.5
20290.000.002.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Least Tern in Peninsular Florida.
St LucieFLORIDA172002
Key LargoFLORIDA161991
Merritt IslFLORIDA152008
Key WestFLORIDA81987
Citrus ParkFLORIDA82009
Boca RatonFLORIDA61994
ScottsmoorFLORIDA52024
Plantation KFLORIDA52004
IndiantownFLORIDA42017
SandyFLORIDA42007
HomesteadFLORIDA32007
Indiantown 2FLORIDA32022
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA32018
Dale MabryFLORIDA21988
BelmoreFLORIDA21972
MabelFLORIDA21968
ChildsFLORIDA21977
SalvistaFLORIDA21978
BrowardFLORIDA21973
Winter GardnFLORIDA22008
DavieFLORIDA22011
Weaver StnFLORIDA21995
Punta GordaFLORIDA22014
Vero BeachFLORIDA22018
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA22003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.