BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+187%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Least Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 3.2–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 3.2–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.83.04.6
20273.93.04.7
20283.93.14.7
20294.03.14.8
20304.03.24.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA582025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA432025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA222025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA182019
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA182025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA172025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA152023
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA142017
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA142025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA112025
BeltramiMINNESOTA102025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA92023
OkleeMINNESOTA82021
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA82025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA72025
WylieMINNESOTA62024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA61983
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA62025
ChinookMONTANA52025
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA52011
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
HuntleyMINNESOTA41967
LockhartMINNESOTA42025
GlasgowMONTANA42025
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.