BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+193%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Least Flycatcher In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 3.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 3.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.82.94.6
20263.83.04.7
20273.93.04.7
20283.93.14.8
20294.03.14.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA582024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA312024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA182019
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA152023
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA142017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA142024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA92024
OkleeMINNESOTA82021
BeltramiMINNESOTA82024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA82024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA72022
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA72024
WylieMINNESOTA62024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA61983
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA62022
ClevelandMONTANA52024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA52024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA52011
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
HuntleyMINNESOTA41967
RedstoneMONTANA42024
ChinookMONTANA42024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.