BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Bittern In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Least Bittern in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Bittern has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Bittern In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Bittern in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Bittern in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.70
20260.000.000.69
20270.000.000.69
20280.000.000.69
20290.000.000.69

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Least Bittern in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AndytownFLORIDA191998
Wildernes PkFLORIDA72014
WebbFLORIDA32018
Myakka HeadFLORIDA21987
ScottsmoorFLORIDA21992
AlvaFLORIDA22010
Punta GordaFLORIDA21980
CorbettFLORIDA22022
MicanopyFLORIDA11987
MabelFLORIDA12004
PinecrestFLORIDA12017
IndiantownFLORIDA12000
SalvistaFLORIDA11969
BrowardFLORIDA11973
Plantation KFLORIDA11966
Winter GardnFLORIDA11997
Pleasant GrFLORIDA11993
ShawanoFLORIDA12001
HomesteadFLORIDA12018
Devils GardnFLORIDA12012
PalmdaleFLORIDA12004
AripekaFLORIDA11993
Weaver StnFLORIDA11991
Citrus ParkFLORIDA11994
Lake BuffumFLORIDA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.