BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.10–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.10–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.110.67
20260.390.110.67
20270.380.100.66
20280.380.100.66
20290.380.100.66

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA72021
LanettALABAMA42024
JulietteGEORGIA42024
Bald FriarMARYLAND41996
HallVIRGINIA42004
MillervilleALABAMA32024
HebronGEORGIA32008
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA32003
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA32023
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA32013
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA32019
ForsythGEORGIA22023
FairplayGEORGIA21966
GrovetownGEORGIA22021
BowdonGEORGIA22018
RutledgeGEORGIA22024
Ball GroundGEORGIA22021
SharonGEORGIA22022
Curry HillGEORGIA22016
Sunny SideGEORGIA22014
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA22024
Sharon 2GEORGIA22024
NorwoodMARYLAND21980
Pleasant ValMARYLAND22005
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA21977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.