BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.11–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.11–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.410.120.70
20270.410.120.70
20280.400.110.69
20290.400.110.69
20300.400.110.69

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty City 2ALABAMA62025
WhitesburgGEORGIA62025
RutledgeGEORGIA52025
Ball GroundGEORGIA52025
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA52025
LanettALABAMA42024
AthensGEORGIA42025
Carrs StationGEORGIA42025
Bald FriarMARYLAND41996
HallVIRGINIA42004
MillervilleALABAMA32025
HebronGEORGIA32008
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA32003
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA32023
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA32013
Nixburg 2ALABAMA22025
ForsythGEORGIA22023
FairplayGEORGIA21966
GrovetownGEORGIA22021
BowdonGEORGIA22025
WashingtonGEORGIA22025
SharonGEORGIA22022
Curry HillGEORGIA22016
Sunny SideGEORGIA22014
Rock BranchGEORGIA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.