BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.14–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.14–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.151.0
20270.570.151.0
20280.570.151.00
20290.570.141.00
20300.570.140.99

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA221997
OkleeMINNESOTA112021
ZearingIOWA101995
TitonkaIOWA92025
TildenNEBRASKA72025
PantherIOWA62025
MccallsburgIOWA62025
WashingtonIOWA42025
KanawhaIOWA42025
ClareIOWA42019
CourtlandMINNESOTA42025
FairmontMINNESOTA42025
MidwayNEBRASKA42025
Winside 2NEBRASKA42022
PoncaNEBRASKA42025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA42025
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA42012
HuntleyMINNESOTA32025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA32025
MaynardMINNESOTA32015
BeltramiMINNESOTA32025
WorthingtonMINNESOTA32025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32025
ScrantonIOWA22024
ChandlerMINNESOTA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.