BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Finch In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

House Finch in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

24×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Finch In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.85–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.85–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.761.8
20271.30.781.8
20281.30.811.8
20291.30.831.8
20301.40.851.9

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording House Finch in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DallasTEXAS192025
KosseTEXAS142014
WeatherfordTEXAS142025
SeldenTEXAS92025
Wills PointTEXAS92023
WalburgTEXAS72025
Three RiversTEXAS72025
GrafordTEXAS62025
Lone OakTEXAS52022
CarlosTEXAS52025
BriteTEXAS52025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS42025
MegargelTEXAS42024
Glen RoseTEXAS32025
DikeTEXAS32024
HearneTEXAS32024
BurtonTEXAS32025
BrucevilleTEXAS32025
NobleOKLAHOMA22025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22025
DuncanOKLAHOMA22008
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22018
HobsonTEXAS22023
CampbelltonTEXAS22018
MuldoonTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.