BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Hermit Thrush in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+72%Since 1976
59Routes In Region
47Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Hermit Thrush has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.86–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2029
5.0Projected 2029 index
0.86–9.195% range
±79.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.00.859.1
20265.00.859.1
20275.00.869.1
20285.00.869.1
20295.00.869.1

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in BCR 4.
HomerALASKA331982
MatanuskaALASKA331983
Anchor RiverALASKA182024
CohoeALASKA142023
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA121984
EagleALASKA112024
ToklatALASKA102024
KachemakALASKA92024
KalifonskyALASKA82023
Kenny LakeALASKA72024
Seven LakesALASKA62023
NorthwayALASKA52023
Chena Hot SpALASKA51990
Mt. FairplayALASKA52024
Chatanika RALASKA42023
MonahanALASKA42021
Chena RiverALASKA41988
L SalchaALASKA42021
WasillaALASKA41983
Anvik RiverALASKA42024
LivengoodALASKA32021
SlanaALASKA32022
Tower BluffsALASKA32016
TonsinaALASKA32021
Hatcher PassALASKA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.