BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Henslow's Sparrow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Henslow's Sparrow in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Henslow's Sparrow in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.04–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±237.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Henslow's Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.04–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.020.46
20260.240.030.46
20270.240.030.46
20280.250.030.47
20290.250.040.47

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Henslow's Sparrow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ApexKENTUCKY82019
McbrayerKENTUCKY62024
CelestineINDIANA31989
Clear SpringINDIANA32013
BlandMISSOURI32017
DelwoodILLINOIS22024
VevayINDIANA21987
NewberryINDIANA22015
GeorgiaINDIANA22018
Cross PlainsINDIANA22023
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22017
East UnionKENTUCKY22019
RiverqueenKENTUCKY22016
DixonKENTUCKY22008
WhitewaterMISSOURI22024
Clementine 2MISSOURI22007
SedaliaMISSOURI22023
RoyaltonILLINOIS12022
PimentoINDIANA12016
BrazilINDIANA11966
SpencerINDIANA12011
MillersburgINDIANA12000
Indian SpgsINDIANA12019
New PhilaINDIANA12011
CorydonINDIANA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.