BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+135%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.64–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.64–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.552.5
20261.60.572.5
20271.60.592.6
20281.60.612.6
20291.60.642.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlackbirdDELAWARE242024
FrankfordDELAWARE151966
HongaMARYLAND152024
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY122011
VillasNEW-JERSEY111981
WesthamptonNEW-YORK112021
Jones BeachNEW-YORK92013
MadisonMARYLAND72024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK72023
Bethany BchDELAWARE51990
PepperboxDELAWARE52016
EastonMARYLAND51987
Golden HillMARYLAND42021
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY42024
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY41991
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY42024
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY42013
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND42010
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE32024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS31978
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY31971
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY32021
Mt PleasantDELAWARE22018
WilmingtonDELAWARE22014
HarringtonDELAWARE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.