BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+119%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.58–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.58–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.502.5
20271.50.522.5
20281.50.542.5
20291.60.562.5
20301.60.582.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Great Egret in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY162025
FrankfordDELAWARE151966
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY122011
BlackbirdDELAWARE112025
VillasNEW-JERSEY111981
WesthamptonNEW-YORK112021
MadisonMARYLAND102025
HongaMARYLAND92025
Jones BeachNEW-YORK92013
HuntingtonNEW-YORK72023
Bethany BchDELAWARE51990
PepperboxDELAWARE52016
EastonMARYLAND51987
Golden HillMARYLAND42021
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS42025
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY41991
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY42013
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE32024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS31978
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY31971
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY32021
Mt PleasantDELAWARE22018
WilmingtonDELAWARE22014
HarringtonDELAWARE22024
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE21991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.