BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWetland birds

Great Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+117%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.01–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±160%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.01–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.000.71
20260.360.000.72
20270.360.010.72
20280.370.010.73
20290.370.010.73

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Egret in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GulfportILLINOIS1272013
BelleviewILLINOIS362024
Rock CreekKANSAS292014
ShannonILLINOIS141993
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA142022
ChandlervillILLINOIS121974
Mt VernonILLINOIS82006
Trading PostKANSAS82024
Lake SummersetILLINOIS72008
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS52023
New PointMISSOURI52022
EldredILLINOIS42004
YorkvilleILLINOIS42018
GeneseoILLINOIS32014
PawneeILLINOIS32000
SenecaILLINOIS32013
Duncan MillsILLINOIS32002
GaryINDIANA31998
HebronINDIANA31996
BryantIOWA32016
Sioux CityIOWA32016
MelroseKANSAS32023
WrefordKANSAS32014
RockinghamMISSOURI32018
NorborneMISSOURI32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.