BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great Egret In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.50–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.50–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.384.4
20272.40.414.5
20282.50.444.5
20292.50.474.5
20302.50.504.5

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS282025
HenriettaTEXAS252022
DallasTEXAS122024
BonnerTEXAS102025
Wills PointTEXAS102016
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA72025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS52021
CayugaTEXAS52025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA42025
GrafordTEXAS42025
BurtonTEXAS42025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS42025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA32025
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32023
CampbelltonTEXAS32024
Lone OakTEXAS32022
ThorntonTEXAS31984
RhomeTEXAS32021
FanninTEXAS32023
BeggsOKLAHOMA22023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22011
SchroederTEXAS21996
MuldoonTEXAS22025
Peach CreekTEXAS21992
OsageTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.