BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great Egret In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.51–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.51–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.384.4
20262.40.414.5
20272.50.454.5
20282.50.484.5
20292.50.514.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great Egret in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HenriettaTEXAS252022
Massey LakeTEXAS122024
DallasTEXAS122024
Wills PointTEXAS102016
BonnerTEXAS82024
CarlosTEXAS72024
BrucevilleTEXAS62024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS52021
WalburgTEXAS42024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32023
DuncanOKLAHOMA32023
CampbelltonTEXAS32024
Lone OakTEXAS32022
ThorntonTEXAS31984
RhomeTEXAS32021
FanninTEXAS32023
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22009
BeggsOKLAHOMA22023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA22023
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22022
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22011
SchroederTEXAS21996
Peach CreekTEXAS21992
GrafordTEXAS22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.