BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.001.9
20260.770.001.8
20270.700.001.7
20280.630.001.6
20290.560.001.6

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AzaliaINDIANA102024
VevayINDIANA102024
BelmontINDIANA92024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY92021
PlumKENTUCKY82024
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY82023
BrazilINDIANA72024
SpencerINDIANA72024
HillsboroALABAMA61996
Indian SpgsINDIANA62024
New PhilaINDIANA62023
Cross PlainsINDIANA62024
HustonvilleKENTUCKY62024
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY62023
East UnionKENTUCKY62022
Million 2KENTUCKY62024
RichlandMISSOURI62021
Clear SpringINDIANA52024
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY52003
EugeneMISSOURI52023
BirdsILLINOIS42024
WashingtonINDIANA42023
NewberryINDIANA42024
GeorgiaINDIANA42024
LeveeKENTUCKY41982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.