BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Gray Catbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.001.9
20270.780.001.8
20280.710.001.8
20290.650.001.7
20300.580.001.6

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CelestineINDIANA132025
AzaliaINDIANA122025
VevayINDIANA112025
BelmontINDIANA92024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY92021
PlumKENTUCKY92025
East UnionKENTUCKY82025
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY82023
PleasurevillKENTUCKY82025
RomeOHIO82025
BrazilINDIANA72025
SpencerINDIANA72024
HillsboroALABAMA61996
DelwoodILLINOIS62025
Million 2KENTUCKY62024
ScottsburgINDIANA52025
GeorgiaINDIANA52025
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY52003
HudsonKENTUCKY52025
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY52025
BirdsILLINOIS42024
YorkILLINOIS42025
Indian SpgsINDIANA42025
Clear SpringINDIANA42025
Cross PlainsINDIANA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.