BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Catbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+110%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.7–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.7–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.62.6
20272.11.62.6
20282.11.62.6
20292.11.62.6
20302.11.72.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA192011
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA122025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA122025
GlyndonMINNESOTA102025
TildenNEBRASKA102025
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA102025
ChandlerMINNESOTA82025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA82025
CourtlandMINNESOTA72025
BeltramiMINNESOTA62025
BadgerMINNESOTA62018
MidwayNEBRASKA62025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
PantherIOWA52025
MccallsburgIOWA52025
HuntleyMINNESOTA52025
MaynardMINNESOTA52015
WylieMINNESOTA52024
SpartaNEBRASKA52025
MadisonNEBRASKA52025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA52025
TitonkaIOWA42025
OkleeMINNESOTA42021
FairmontMINNESOTA42025
FranklinMINNESOTA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.