BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Catbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Catbird has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Catbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 1.6–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 1.6–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.01.52.5
20262.01.62.5
20272.01.62.5
20282.11.62.5
20292.11.62.5

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Gray Catbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA192011
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA152024
CourtlandMINNESOTA122024
PantherIOWA82024
GlyndonMINNESOTA82024
BeltramiMINNESOTA82024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA72024
BadgerMINNESOTA62018
TracyMINNESOTA62024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA62023
KanawhaIOWA52024
HuntleyMINNESOTA52024
MaynardMINNESOTA52015
WylieMINNESOTA52024
FairmontMINNESOTA52023
ChinookMONTANA52023
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA52024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA52024
WashingtonIOWA42024
Redwood FallMINNESOTA42024
OkleeMINNESOTA42021
ClevelandMONTANA42024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA42024
PoncaNEBRASKA42019
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.