BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Florida Scrub-Jay In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Florida Scrub-Jay in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Florida Scrub-Jay has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Florida Scrub-Jay In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Florida Scrub-Jay in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Florida Scrub-Jay in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.86
20270.150.000.84
20280.130.000.82
20290.120.000.81
20300.100.000.79

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Florida Scrub-Jay in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OcalaFLORIDA92025
ChildsFLORIDA42022
ArbuckleFLORIDA42019
SalvistaFLORIDA31977
AripekaFLORIDA31995
MabelFLORIDA22003
PalmdaleFLORIDA22023
Merritt IslFLORIDA22006
Ridge HarborFLORIDA22025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12025
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA12004
KenansvilleFLORIDA11992
Boca RatonFLORIDA11973
SebastianFLORIDA11989
AlvaFLORIDA12015
WebbFLORIDA12003
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.