BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Florida Scrub-Jay In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Florida Scrub-Jay in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968
17Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Florida Scrub-Jay has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Florida Scrub-Jay in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029
0.10Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8095% range
±106.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.180.000.87
20260.160.000.85
20270.140.000.84
20280.120.000.82
20290.100.000.80

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Florida Scrub-Jay in Peninsular Florida.
OcalaFLORIDA62024
ChildsFLORIDA42022
ArbuckleFLORIDA42019
SalvistaFLORIDA31977
AripekaFLORIDA31995
MabelFLORIDA22003
PalmdaleFLORIDA22023
Merritt IslFLORIDA22006
Ridge HarborFLORIDA22024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA12004
KenansvilleFLORIDA11992
Boca RatonFLORIDA11973
SebastianFLORIDA11989
AlvaFLORIDA12015
WebbFLORIDA12003
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.