BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
276Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.9–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.9–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.43.27.6
20275.33.17.6
20285.33.07.5
20295.23.07.4
20305.12.97.3

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New CastleINDIANA452024
HarveysburgOHIO431996
EmdenMISSOURI282024
New HamptonMISSOURI272025
Kankakee SandsINDIANA262025
WilmingtonOHIO251996
LucerneMISSOURI232025
FrankfordMISSOURI222025
Kings CreekOHIO222015
BrookvilleINDIANA212025
Trading PostKANSAS212025
Witts StationINDIANA202025
GrantvilleKANSAS192022
RockinghamMISSOURI192025
TrentonMISSOURI192025
GeraldMISSOURI192025
UnionMISSOURI191999
MarionOHIO192023
FilleyMISSOURI182025
DanvilleMISSOURI182025
McfallMISSOURI182025
GildehouseMISSOURI181989
Queen CityMISSOURI182022
ThurstonNEBRASKA182025
RobinsonILLINOIS172023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.