BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
276Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.9–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.9–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.27.7
20265.43.17.6
20275.33.17.6
20285.23.07.5
20295.22.97.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New CastleINDIANA452024
HarveysburgOHIO431996
LucerneMISSOURI362021
EmdenMISSOURI282024
WashtaIOWA272014
HuntsvilleMISSOURI252024
WilmingtonOHIO251996
Kings CreekOHIO222015
Kankakee SandsINDIANA212024
SticklervillMISSOURI212024
TrentonMISSOURI202024
ThorntownINDIANA192024
GrantvilleKANSAS192022
Trading PostKANSAS192024
FilleyMISSOURI192024
McfallMISSOURI192024
New HamptonMISSOURI192024
UnionMISSOURI191999
MarionOHIO192023
KellILLINOIS182024
GildehouseMISSOURI181989
Queen CityMISSOURI182022
RobinsonILLINOIS172023
SextonINDIANA172024
Le LoupKANSAS172021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.