BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.36–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.36–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.321.8
20261.10.331.9
20271.10.341.9
20281.10.351.9
20291.10.361.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WinsideNEBRASKA322003
SpartaNEBRASKA242021
PoncaNEBRASKA192024
Winside 2NEBRASKA152022
Wolf PointMONTANA102024
MidwayNEBRASKA102023
MadisonNEBRASKA102019
TildenNEBRASKA92024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA72024
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA61989
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA61990
Big StoneMINNESOTA52012
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA52008
GarnerIOWA41992
ArlingtonMINNESOTA41974
GlyndonMINNESOTA41991
WylieMINNESOTA42019
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
HuntleyMINNESOTA32022
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA31988
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA32014
HartlandMINNESOTA21977
DawsonMINNESOTA22017
OkleeMINNESOTA21988
FranklinMINNESOTA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.