BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ferruginous Hawk Population Trend in Oregon

All statesBirds of prey

Ferruginous Hawk in Oregon has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+69%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ferruginous Hawk Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ferruginous Hawk has risen sharply in Oregon: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Ferruginous Hawk Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Oregon is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.05–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Oregon is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.05–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.040.26
20270.150.040.27
20280.150.040.27
20290.160.040.27
20300.160.050.27

Ferruginous Hawk Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fandango Can520251988
Crowley420251984
Malheur Nwr420221989
Madras420252010
Green Mtn.420251994
Imnaha319821982
Blitzen319931981
Three Forks220212015
Bridgeport220132009
Buchanan220001983
Montague220251974
Crane220241993
Sheaville220122012
Blitzen 2120251997
Zumwalt120041995
Wagontire120241988
Joseph120251971
Eightmile119991987
Granite119881988
Clover Creek120242018
Princeton119841984
Adrian120082005
Blizzard Gap120211989
Fish Lake119831983
Battle Mtn119901988

Ferruginous Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.