BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ferruginous Hawk Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Ferruginous Hawk in North Dakota has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ferruginous Hawk Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ferruginous Hawk in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Ferruginous Hawk Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in North Dakota is projected to rise about 269% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+269%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in North Dakota is projected to rise about 269% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.260.000.55
20250.260.000.55
20260.260.000.55
20270.260.000.55
20280.260.000.55

Ferruginous Hawk Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen Ullin320222000
Danzig220101983
Golva220111987
Sheyenne Lk220021992
Forman119771977
Carson120031988
Edgeley120171991
Lake George120211967
Kempton120051993
Cooperstown119911978
Horsehead Lk120221980
Buchanan120231981
Webster120072007
Rolla119911974
Regan120211973
Ft Yates119891979
Dickinson120101997
Dunn Center120101993
Carpio119901990
Tobacco119911976
Stanley120191972
Denbigh120111969
Lark119781970
Bowman120102000
Zap120001988

Ferruginous Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.