BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ferruginous Hawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesBirds of prey

Ferruginous Hawk in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-61%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ferruginous Hawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ferruginous Hawk has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Ferruginous Hawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in New Mexico is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in New Mexico is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.23
20270.080.000.23
20280.070.000.23
20290.070.000.23
20300.070.000.23

Ferruginous Hawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Correo319761975
Clovis320062001
Farley220171990
Grenville220171983
Horse Spgs220231998
Sedan220251995
San Simon119801980
Crownpoint119791976
Torreon120081991
Salt Lake 2120232019
Pecos120061999
Fence Lake120122012
Valencia119891976
Floyd120211980
Horse Mtn120102004
Caprock119881988
Maxwell120232003
Gallo Arroyo120141997
Shiprock120242009
Variadero120102010
Rosebud120251994
Quemado119971997
Mountainair120141998
Corona East119951995
Pastura120252005

Ferruginous Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.