BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Evening Grosbeak In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Evening Grosbeak in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Evening Grosbeak has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±309.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±309.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Evening Grosbeak in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±309.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.005.2
20260.000.005.2
20270.000.005.2
20280.000.005.2
20290.000.005.2

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Evening Grosbeak in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deep CreekIDAHO501985
Omak CreekWASHINGTON292022
Elevation MtMONTANA282024
CascadeIDAHO271984
Nezperce NfIDAHO181999
Greenoagh 3MONTANA172024
GoldenIDAHO152003
CentervilleIDAHO152002
Greenoagh 2MONTANA132011
Horse CreekWYOMING101988
Painted RockMONTANA82019
Threemile WaMONTANA82023
CoolinIDAHO72024
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA72019
OchocoOREGON71982
Deer ParkWASHINGTON72001
WilsonWYOMING71983
MivodenIDAHO62022
CobaltIDAHO62024
N Fork Cda RIDAHO62013
EllistonMONTANA62023
Fish CreekMONTANA62024
Wise RiverMONTANA62024
MonumentOREGON61993
CusickWASHINGTON62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.