BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 22–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 22–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025392752
2026382651
2027372549
2028362348
2029352247

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY3581970
Jones BeachNEW-YORK3442013
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY3132009
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY2972012
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY2961991
MillsboroDELAWARE2612024
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY2611977
LargoMARYLAND2521981
Holleyville 2DELAWARE2482024
WalnutMARYLAND2372024
FrankfordDELAWARE2362012
SinepuxentMARYLAND2331978
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY2162024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS2062024
HarmonyMARYLAND2022017
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND1971990
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY1912013
Forest GroveMARYLAND1832023
WilmingtonDELAWARE1672014
QuinbyVIRGINIA1612024
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY1552024
MiltonDELAWARE1542016
Snow HillMARYLAND1511976
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY1511991
MardelaMARYLAND1492019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.