BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 22–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 22–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026392752
2027382550
2028372449
2029362348
2030342247

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording European Starling in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY3581970
Jones BeachNEW-YORK3442013
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY3132009
Milton 2DELAWARE2992025
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY2972012
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY2961991
CokesburyMARYLAND2872025
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY2611977
LargoMARYLAND2521981
Holleyville 2DELAWARE2482024
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY2462025
WalnutMARYLAND2372024
FrankfordDELAWARE2362012
SinepuxentMARYLAND2331978
FredericaDELAWARE2112025
HarmonyMARYLAND2022017
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND1971990
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY1912013
Forest GroveMARYLAND1832023
WilmingtonDELAWARE1672014
MiltonDELAWARE1542016
Snow HillMARYLAND1511976
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY1511991
MardelaMARYLAND1492019
JonesMARYLAND1381994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.